What is this Substack about (1)? Casino gamblers' strategies and beliefs about winning
Theme 1 of 4
This Substack is about four inter-related themes each of which will be described in a separate brief essay.
The first of these themes—the one described here—is the sometimes bizarre, often compelling beliefs about winning that propel so many people to risk their money gambling in casinos, despite the undeniable fact that most casino gamblers lose.
What are those strategies and beliefs? Spoiler: there are a lot of them and they change with experience, differ across games, and vary widely across individuals and locations.
Do the strategies work and are the beliefs true? Spoiler: sometimes yes and sometimes no but, in both cases, for reasons that non-gamblers would usually not expect.
Why do casino gamblers endorse seemingly false beliefs and substandard strategies? Spoiler: the reason is usually not primarily because gamblers are poor reasoners or rely on readily dismissible evidence, and even though gamblers’ strategies are often sub-optimal and their beliefs are often false, the strategies work and the beliefs are true more often than most non-gamblers would expect, including decision scientists and clinical psychologists who think a lot about gambling decision making.
Every essay in this Substack will in some way or other be about at least one of the above topics.