Casino Cognition: Judgment and Decision Making in the Wild

Heuristics, biases, and rationality among casino blackjack players

When I turned 21, armed with basic knowledge from Edward Thorp’s Beat the Dealer, I decided to try my luck at blackjack.

Oct 1

2

July 2025

If It Looks Like a Duck... It Might Not Be a Duck (Part 3): Chasing

The term chasing is shorthand for chasing losses, the act of increasing the persistence and, usually, the size of one’s bets after extensive or…

Jul 10

1

March 2025

If It Looks Like a Duck... It Might Not Be a Duck (Part 2): The Martingale Betting System

This is Part 2 of an essay about why it is problematic to infer belief in the gambler’s fallacy from gambling choices.

Mar 26

2

If It Looks Like a Duck... It Might Not Be a Duck (Part 1)

What looks like the gambler's fallacy is often something else

Mar 17

2

Belief in the Gambler's Fallacy is Trivial

[The Grandmother] “Just now I heard the flaxen-haired croupier call out ‘zero!’ And why does he keep raking in all the money that is on the table?

Mar 10

2

February 2025

Why Believe in the Gambler's Fallacy?

In 1913 in a Monte Carlo casino, a roulette ball landed on black 26 times in a row. With a fair roulette wheel, such a streak—of either color—should…

Feb 19

3

Life Is (not) a Gamble

On Domain Specificity and the Generality of the Gambling Metaphor

Feb 3

2

January 2025

The Law of Large Numbers and the Misconception That Chance Corrects Previous Unlikely Outcomes

A common misconception about the law of large numbers among experienced gamblers, and its relationship to "the Gambler's Fallacy" and "Belief in the Hot…

Jan 29

1

Expected Value (EV)

The foundation for Subjective Expected Utility Theory (SEU), a dominant model of rational choice under risk and uncertainty

Jan 23

December 2024

What Is—and Isn't—*Risk* and *Uncertainty*?

The newsletters in this Substack concern decisions under risk and uncertainty, the domain most relevant to the gambling metaphor described in the…

Dec 23, 2024

2

November 2024

My Casino Background 2: Playing Blackjack for a PhD

Post 2 of 2 about my background with casino gambling and decision science

Nov 12, 2024

4

March 2024

My Casino Background 1: Counting Cards in Las Vegas and Prague

Post 1 of 2 about my background with casino gambling and decision science

Mar 27, 2024