Archive - Casino Cognition: Judgment and Decision Making in the Wild

If It Looks Like a Duck... It Might Not Be a Duck (Part 3): Chasing

The term chasing is shorthand for chasing losses, the act of increasing the persistence and, usually, the size of one’s bets after extensive or…

Jul 10

March 2025

If It Looks Like a Duck... It Might Not Be a Duck (Part 2): The Martingale Betting System

This is Part 2 of an essay about why it is problematic to infer belief in the gambler’s fallacy from gambling choices.

Mar 26

If It Looks Like a Duck... It Might Not Be a Duck (Part 1)

What looks like the gambler's fallacy is often something else

Mar 17

Belief in the Gambler's Fallacy is Trivial

[The Grandmother] “Just now I heard the flaxen-haired croupier call out ‘zero!’ And why does he keep raking in all the money that is on the table?

Mar 10

February 2025

Why Believe in the Gambler's Fallacy?

In 1913 in a Monte Carlo casino, a roulette ball landed on black 26 times in a row. With a fair roulette wheel, such a streak—of either color—should…

Feb 19

Life Is (not) a Gamble

On Domain Specificity and the Generality of the Gambling Metaphor

Feb 3

January 2025

The Law of Large Numbers and the Misconception That Chance Corrects Previous Unlikely Outcomes

A common misconception about the law of large numbers among experienced gamblers, and its relationship to "the Gambler's Fallacy" and "Belief in the Hot…

Jan 29

Expected Value (EV)

The foundation for Subjective Expected Utility Theory (SEU), a dominant model of rational choice under risk and uncertainty

Jan 23

December 2024

What Is—and Isn't—*Risk* and *Uncertainty*?

The newsletters in this Substack concern decisions under risk and uncertainty, the domain most relevant to the gambling metaphor described in the…

Dec 23, 2024

November 2024

My Casino Background 2: Playing Blackjack for a PhD

Post 2 of 2 about my background with casino gambling and decision science

Nov 12, 2024

March 2024

My Casino Background 1: Counting Cards in Las Vegas and Prague

Post 1 of 2 about my background with casino gambling and decision science

Mar 27, 2024

What is this Substack about (4)? The impact of culture and the built environment on perceptions of rationality and on between–group…

Mar 26, 2024

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